Cut the Feds Some Slack

US Intelligence Community

Every time a mass casualty crime occurs, one question hangs in the air: Why wasn’t the perpetrator identified and stopped beforehand? It seems there are always indicators that, had they been recognized and acted upon, could have prevented the tragedy. And the Boston Marathon bombings are no exception.

Almost as soon as the alleged offenders were identified, word surfaced that the Russians had requested an FBI investigation of Tamerlan Tsarnaev as a possibly dangerous Islamic radical. The Bureau found nothing worrisome and closed the case.

Now comes a report that the CIA was also sufficiently concerned to want Tamerlan’s name added to TIDE – the Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment – which is kind of a master list that other law enforcement and investigative agencies refer to.

While we retrospectively wish this had been done, from our own experience, we also feel that everyone needs to cut the feds some slack.

It is easy to look back and say this or that individual exhibited clear-cut danger signs. But the fact of the matter, whether we are talking about terrorism or more “normal” crime, is that these signs are generally much more ambiguous when they are first recognized. And for every individual displaying these signs who goes on to commit a heinous act, there are thousands who do not. And the intelligence reports come in in such volume that the prevailing analogy is that trying to set apart one particular data set is like trying to take a sip of water from a fire hose. It’s just not that easy.

We have seen this time and again in the hunt for serial killers. When John consulted with local agencies or task forces during his years in the FBI, it would not be unusual for him to describe the behavioral profile of an UNSUB and conclude with the comment, “And in all likelihood, you’ve already interviewed him.” Sometimes that would lead right to a suspect. Other times, in widespread manhunts such as the notorious Green River Killer case, the actual offender was not only interviewed but polygraphed twice (passing both times, as John predicted he would) before he was finally identified years later by DNA.

The Bureau and other intelligence agencies get so many investigative requests that they have to triage them in the same way that busy emergency rooms do. A broken arm is going to have to wait a lot longer for treatment than a heart attack or serious gunshot wound. At the time, the inquiry on Tsarnaev did not seem that pressing or important.

And this brings up another verity applicable to the public, the media, congressional committee panels and every other glib and self-righteous critic you can think of.

The Danish existential philosopher Soren Kierkegaard put it this way: “Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.”

Or, as we would put it in law enforcement terms:

All investigative missteps can be seen clearly once the investigation is over, and every crime looks obvious once it’s solved.

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